Other European Leagues · resolved market
AZ vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e27828735796b03e9cab174d349bfe3ffdc03d221d2248361f7727a40567c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 3,075$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.9 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 8c | 3,000$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 578.54$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Over | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 37c | 420$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 33c | 322.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 37c | 267.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 62c | 239.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 37c | 134.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 91.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Over | 38c | 86.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 84.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 37c | 73.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 35c | 35.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 28.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- AZ vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AZ vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Under won
- AZ vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.