CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e3732725a0b2c93de5a8e47ee11203ec2fba93691d3e670f024d4b8feba4372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, Abyssal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…8044backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 74c | 10,070$7,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.24 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Abyssal | 33c | 6,349$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.41 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Abyssal | 20c | 1,603$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.92 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Abyssal | 20c | 1,434$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.88 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 71c | 1,291$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.43 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 80c | 1,020$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.44 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Abyssal | 19c | 914.07$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Abyssal | 17c | 867.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed Abyssal | 10c | 552.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…7f8fbacked Abyssal | 28c | 359.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…a9c7backed Abyssal | 19c | 309.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Abyssal | 11c | 299.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Abyssal | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5e…52f0backed Abyssal | 34c | 190.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Abyssal | 25c | 154.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…a3edbacked Abyssal | 20c | 139.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Abyssal | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 231 | 50.6%117 W · 114 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 130.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 80c | 124.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Abyssal | 17c | 124.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Abyssal | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Abyssal | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 60c | 91.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed Abyssal | 17c | 87.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 66c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 99 | 70.7%70 W · 29 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…3d70backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 63.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa66…e95bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 48.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…40fcbacked Abyssal | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Abyssal | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 67c | 28.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 172 | 57.6%99 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…fd19backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 27.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…eeb3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 89 | 88.8%79 W · 10 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Abyssal - Map 1 WinnerAbyssal won
- Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Abyssal - Map 2 WinnerTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.