TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,525 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over55c4,777$2,604 inLost-$2,604.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under44c4,565$2,004 inWon+$2,561.2410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Over66c371.97$245 inLost-$244.8713759.1%81 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c23…ed23backed Under62c322.58$200 inWon+$122.583966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under34c308.59$106 inWon+$202.448,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over56c223$125 inLost-$124.881,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under45c212.87$96 inWon+$117.078,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under42c110$46 inWon+$64.266,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over61c104$63 inLost-$63.4499744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under16c97.87$16 inWon+$81.812,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over55c94$52 inLost-$51.71,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under44c80.37$35 inWon+$45.0111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under34c79.87$27 inWon+$52.7199624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under35c62.88$22 inWon+$40.873,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over64c60$38 inLost-$38.45,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Over55c46.92$26 inLost-$25.8110539%41 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Under25c41$10 inWon+$30.7428943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over63c38.11$24 inLost-$24.1522848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over55c33.36$18 inLost-$18.3551555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over62c28$17 inLost-$17.424,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Over76c26.32$20 inLost-$207766.2%51 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Over55c20.76$11 inLost-$11.4240554.8%222 W · 183 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over64c20$13 inLost-$12.84,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over64c18.88$12 inLost-$12.128,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.