MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf933d675d634a0efe109fe375e45c5f585d1827c0d599bd222fe3a9942ce1731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 68c | 20,764$14,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,059.79 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 15,187$5,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,056.62 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 2,736$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.1 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Minnesota Twins | 27c | 2,624$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.48 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Houston Astros | 61c | 2,134$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.99 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 1,978$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.08 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 1,927$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 1,780$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.65 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 1,318$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.27 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 1,127$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.89 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 26c | 1,120$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Minnesota Twins | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 680.73$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.64 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 60c | 654.72$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.19 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Houston Astros | 59c | 444$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.96 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 241.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 62c | 231.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 59c | 212.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 162.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Houston Astros | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 61c | 135.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 135$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Houston Astros | 61c | 129$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 127$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 124.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Minnesota Twins | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 60c | 96.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 94.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Houston Astros | 26c | 93.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 60c | 89.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 84.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 60c | 73.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 73.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 59.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 29c | 58.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Houston Astros | 59c | 57.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 45.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 44.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fb8ebacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Houston Astros | 73c | 36.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 34.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 31.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 30.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Houston Astros | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.