Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6da3b61588168db7226941d42a8edbda03b70c922014853ec290f37680e203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Game Masterof Game Master, Grey Trac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…2759backed Grey Trac | 53c | 1,556$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.68 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Game Master | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…9ed6backed Game Master | 54c | 863.39$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Grey Trac | 46c | 646.7$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Grey Trac | 53c | 500.1$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…c4b8backed Game Master | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Game Master | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked Grey Trac | 45c | 444.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Grey Trac | 54c | 158.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Grey Trac | 50c | 115.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5560backed Grey Trac | 49c | 76.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked Game Master | 49c | 75.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Grey Trac | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…8a97backed Game Master | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Game Master | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Grey Trac | 47c | 27.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Game Master | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Game Master | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGame Master won
- Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 WinnerGame Master won
- Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 WinnerGame Master won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.