Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123fcbbcf00f1393c7bcebf9c260c69942b586b940f477765bc54474fae8c226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Game Masterof Game Master, Grey Trac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Grey Trac | 33c | 2,733$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Game Master | 69c | 2,464$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.22 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Grey Trac | 30c | 1,569$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.27 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Game Master | 71c | 1,372$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.87 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Grey Trac | 29c | 1,255$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.89 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Game Master | 76c | 1,097$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.27 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Grey Trac | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Grey Trac | 31c | 999.98$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Game Master | 68c | 956.38$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.82 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Game Master | 77c | 750$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Grey Trac | 29c | 700.04$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Grey Trac | 17c | 569.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Game Master | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Grey Trac | 21c | 305.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed Grey Trac | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Game Master | 70c | 284.49$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Grey Trac | 22c | 247.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Grey Trac | 13c | 225$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952a…bdc8backed Game Master | 74c | 217.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Grey Trac | 11c | 201.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Game Master | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Game Master | 72c | 173.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Grey Trac | 9c | 172.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Grey Trac | 26c | 158.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Grey Trac | 16c | 140.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed Grey Trac | 34c | 136.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Game Master | 75c | 132.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Grey Trac | 22c | 121.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Game Master | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Grey Trac | 26c | 119.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Game Master | 73c | 117.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Game Master | 69c | 101.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Grey Trac | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…b50bbacked Grey Trac | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Grey Trac | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Game Master | 74c | 86.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…9fcfbacked Game Master | 69c | 85.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Grey Trac | 22c | 75.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Game Master | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Grey Trac | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…d2d1backed Game Master | 69c | 44.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Game Master | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ed…8b66backed Game Master | 71c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2036…9ebcbacked Game Master | 70c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGame Master won
- Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 WinnerGame Master won
- Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5)Game Master won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.