MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e75d699d5721cc3076a28b2647c5faba187def2fed6d4060c64f450ab4f4b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 2,884$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.34 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 2,123$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.31 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colorado Rockies | 45c | 1,994$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.94 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 1,410$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.57 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 1,008$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 999.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 988.67$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.12 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 945.52$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.65 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…ed5ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 943.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 582.89$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.96 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 496.53$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.4 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 304.91$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 251$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 120.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 120.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…ca0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 103.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…3d9dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 68.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 68.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 62.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 57.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…9d95backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado RockiesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-9.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.