Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec00381dfa3fef2bd4f60f64a1e666e67c708825d1170323c3ef683b7723f4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 2,260$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.53 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 13c | 2,200$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.99 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 962.74$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.24 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 12c | 750$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.14 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 18c | 731.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.47 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 11c | 656.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.95 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 15c | 542.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.45 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 14c | 441.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.22 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 380.01$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 20c | 360$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 62c | 324.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 11c | 229.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.21 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.21 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…3248backed Under | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 10c | 141.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 20c | 125.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 34c | 112.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…2e4cbacked Over | 17c | 85.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 27c | 74.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Over | 14c | 71.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 16c | 71.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 20c | 68.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 22c | 58.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 70c | 56.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 61c | 49.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 64c | 43.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.