TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,783 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over10c8,219$791 inLost-$791.191,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over5c4,496$241 inLost-$240.751,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under78c2,500$1,950 inWon+$5508944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over4c2,042$90 inLost-$89.679046.7%42 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae3…c20ebacked Over3c552.8$17 inLost-$16.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over4c520.04$20 inLost-$19.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over22c484$106 inLost-$106.482751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over15c206.29$30 inLost-$30.159348.4%287 W · 306 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over22c170.99$38 inLost-$37.6246450.4%234 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over7c158.08$12 inLost-$11.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over7c158.06$12 inLost-$11.681471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefe4…8f49backed Under78c138$108 inWon+$30.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over22c138$30 inLost-$30.363619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0050…336cbacked Under78c74.83$58 inWon+$16.46366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Under78c64.1$50 inWon+$14.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over22c64.1$14 inLost-$14.13946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Under78c46.31$36 inWon+$10.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450d…b3c4backed Under79c34.18$27 inWon+$7.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.