Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8721ca4d1ea6efdab460f443eaf7e10935a99030e1593fcf8893c08e61b6683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 11,470$6,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,767.15 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 10,652$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,529.75 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 41c | 4,210$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 58c | 2,574$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Over | 41c | 2,275$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 2,054$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.7 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 8c | 1,944$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +254.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 41c | 1,795$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.11 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…3989backed Under | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 16c | 1,584$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.56 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 1,128$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.75 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 71c | 923.15$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.38 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 59c | 910$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.9 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 5c | 895.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 41c | 738$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.04 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 26c | 640.32$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 60c | 539.99$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 5c | 476.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 11c | 473$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Under | 71c | 457.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…aa4fbacked Under | 10c | 452.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Under | 3c | 428.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 29c | 418.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.26 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 72c | 373.87$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…8386backed Over | 41c | 317.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 165$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 16c | 152.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 129.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 17c | 89.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Over | 35c | 82.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 77.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…5934backed Under | 65c | 74.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 23c | 70.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 60c | 69.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 41c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 60c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 59c | 50.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Over | 41c | 50.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e7…eb59backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 24c | 41.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 73c | 41.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 41c | 30.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Over | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 60c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 59c | 28.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 27.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…24b1backed Under | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd7…9c01backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Under | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 5.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Olympique de Marseille O/U 0.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Olympique de Marseille O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: RC Strasbourg Alsace O/U 0.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: RC Strasbourg Alsace O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.