Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0af19f8bd23822c1533b7804d10781a979b73334ac337ea98626d5605dcd17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,998$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.47 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 929.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 705.35$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 431.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 29c | 423.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 9c | 324.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.04 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 66c | 197.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 177.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 67c | 148.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 11c | 131.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 12c | 121.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…fc76backed Yes | 78c | 118.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes | 42c | 107.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 11c | 106.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 105.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 101.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 95.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 16c | 87.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 69.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 44c | 58.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 48.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 44.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 44c | 38.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 69c | 30.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…eff5backed Yes | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 77c | 27.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23f…af02backed Yes | 55c | 22.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…4dfabacked Yes | 69c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.