Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5ae77dbea5ab51fb2e602387d4388b3ea4bb5bfb4ce5827bb3cb1f3dadca31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,448$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.06 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 801.5$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 69c | 798.73$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.58 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 16c | 338.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 329.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 78c | 303.28$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.38 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 39c | 292.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 251.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed No | 67c | 214.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 208.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 190.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 178.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 74c | 172.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 10c | 166.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 36c | 134.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 33c | 132.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 127.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 16c | 115.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 53c | 113.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 26c | 111.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 25c | 111.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 101.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 97.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 96.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 22c | 94.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 74c | 93.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 53c | 89.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 81.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 14c | 80.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 27c | 75.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 32c | 70.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 29c | 66.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 65.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 60.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 46c | 58.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 39.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 61c | 34.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 53c | 32.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…df0cbacked Yes | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 50c | 28.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 74c | 26.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 75c | 25.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23f…af02backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 73c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.