Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a06b0aa689cad88ffe1d335ad27e22d57845d32114c72435b1458bd35d55761
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 1,046$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 9c | 396.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 4c | 375.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 302.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 28c | 289.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 180.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 179.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 69c | 143.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 139.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 121.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 63c | 113.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 17c | 109.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 31c | 107.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 31c | 99.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 99.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes | 39c | 84.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 31c | 78.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 30c | 74.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 74.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 73.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 29c | 68.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 70c | 63.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 21c | 56.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 64c | 54.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 45c | 53.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 69c | 50.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 47.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 38c | 47.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 44.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 41.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 71c | 41.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 71c | 41.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 33c | 39.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 71c | 38.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 70c | 35.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 34.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 34.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 71c | 34.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 34.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…98c8backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 32.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 32.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…51c0backed No | 59c | 32.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 32c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed No | 62c | 29.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 68c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 71c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 71c | 25.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 69c | 25.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 70c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 66c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 70c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 70c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 71c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 68c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 70c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.