TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes30c1,046$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.591,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes9c396.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3810865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes4c375.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.664233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c302.49$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes28c289.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.239535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c180.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes7c179.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.245,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No69c143.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.199959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c139.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.877,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No71c121.38$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.21,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No63c113.08$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9321641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed Yes17c109.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.345451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes31c107.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes38c99.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes31c99.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9727732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c99.48$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.722,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes39c84.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8750%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes31c78.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.399331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes30c74.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4222934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No60c74.03$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.672,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No73c73.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c69.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes29c68.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c65.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.389,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No70c63.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1642049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes35c56.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5174926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes21c56.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.935731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No64c54.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7219547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes45c53.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.840739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…67b0backed No69c50.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.731154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No70c47.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes38c47.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes33c46.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4641733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c44.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c43.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No62c41.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.931,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No71c41.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No71c41.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2626566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes33c39.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No71c38.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No67c37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2114944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7048…f896backed Yes39c36.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.092520%5 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No70c35.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5920266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No67c34.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4340777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No67c34.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No71c34.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9215155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No66c34.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc926…98c8backed Yes32c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5690%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No70c32.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c32.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.754,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e6…51c0backed No59c32.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes32c31.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.127846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed No62c29.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64f…99d7backed No68c29.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.383948.7%19 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No71c29.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4511770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No71c26.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.77061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No71c25.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.521676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No69c25.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7718272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No70c25.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6514666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No66c21.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.349666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No68c21.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8317376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No70c19.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.917558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No70c18.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4814671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No71c18.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.278164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No68c17.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6811664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No71c17.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No70c16.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8226861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No70c14.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4117066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.