Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d1774c692c240f98544a2e781278f11408db550d538aa02021d67bec494a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 47c | 938.41$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 529.1$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.68 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 444.71$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 325.43$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 294.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 44c | 203.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 185.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 180.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 178.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 55c | 125.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 20c | 122.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 113.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 67c | 106.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 55c | 102.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 102.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 88.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 54c | 84.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 84.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 83.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 82.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 72.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 71.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 42c | 71.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 22c | 70.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 64c | 68.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 39c | 68.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes | 44c | 59.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 45c | 59.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 58.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 68c | 58.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…0e9ebacked Yes | 43c | 54.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 55c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 50.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 39c | 49.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 52c | 48.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 63c | 44.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 47c | 42.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 33c | 42.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 59c | 40.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 40.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 56c | 39.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 38.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 48c | 37.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 37.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…df0cbacked Yes | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 45c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 75c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 54c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 65c | 27.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 27.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 39c | 27.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…1f81backed Yes | 47c | 25.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b6…44a5backed Yes | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 56c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 50c | 23.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 52c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked No | 51c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 21.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…dc7dbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 68c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 59c | 17.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.