Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f21c35b563b51f5fad5e12302bc6cba21b9cc2ae26c87ba4cbc8d7bb6d48abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 1,256$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 69c | 388.64$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked No | 69c | 355.03$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 351.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 329.23$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 39c | 254.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 39c | 228.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 61c | 204.73$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…bf3dbacked No | 6c | 168.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 153.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 24c | 145.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 66c | 141.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 26c | 129.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 20c | 124.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 117.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed No | 79c | 116.36$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 110.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 106.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 104.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 100.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…9f35backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…3246backed No | 76c | 97.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 89.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 68c | 85.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 65c | 82.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 51c | 79.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 64c | 77.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 56c | 74.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 74.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 41c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 70.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 59c | 63.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 51c | 59.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 39c | 57.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 61c | 55.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb072…9129backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 42c | 47.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 35c | 42.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 41.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 48c | 41.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 41.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 36c | 37.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 34.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 32.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…80eebacked No | 67c | 29.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…97a6backed Yes | 38c | 29.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 62c | 16.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…21ebbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C or below on February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.