Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7653da165bd9fc39d4ae41b5d4185e872f6fd7832fd52d732dd6f6c8ebcd7afa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 10,620$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 1c | 5,195$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 4,717$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,828$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 12c | 3,680$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.25 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 1c | 2,351$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,607$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1e…66f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,440$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 4c | 1,354$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,129$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 917.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 10c | 872.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 16c | 658.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 11c | 625.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 433.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 399.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 375.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed Yes | 6c | 313.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fd…1104backed Yes | 4c | 284.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 245.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 45c | 220.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 7c | 212.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 42c | 208.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 201.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb072…9129backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 32c | 195.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 177.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 10c | 151.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…3246backed Yes | 43c | 135.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 53c | 120.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C or below on February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.