Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2bd2f3bbd78006f7abbbd1164f24af55f3dc05ab33b1b0030f6054018e6e92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 475.78$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 71c | 302.32$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 274.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 264.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 228.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 55c | 222.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 222.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 43c | 188.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4c…a073backed Yes | 62c | 180.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 59c | 173.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 170.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 168.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 159$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 148.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 141.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 136.19$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 60c | 114.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 37c | 109.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 109.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 69c | 108.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 105.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 102.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 42c | 102.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 89.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 63c | 78.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 32c | 77.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 73.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 53c | 72.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 72c | 69.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 79c | 65.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 64.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 77c | 63.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 67c | 57.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed No | 65c | 56.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 61c | 55.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 24c | 55.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 28c | 55.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 54.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 56c | 51.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 27c | 50.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…abbbbacked No | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 43c | 49.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 27c | 49.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 35c | 49.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 41c | 48.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 46.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 59c | 44.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 43.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 55c | 38.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 37.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 32c | 35.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 66c | 34.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 37c | 33.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…e792backed No | 65c | 33.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 33c | 32.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 34c | 32.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…de46backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 28.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 68c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…ef40backed No | 61c | 28.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 52c | 25.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 50c | 23.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 67c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed No | 60c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 69c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 67c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 61c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…835cbacked No | 71c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…e317backed No | 67c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed No | 78c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.