TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c475.78$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No71c302.32$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3431542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c274.74$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c264.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes30c228.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.196,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No55c222.26$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3720342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes28c222.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.421,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes43c188.74$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8111126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b4c…a073backed Yes62c180.95$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No59c173.82$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6463323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No74c170.94$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.631,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes33c168.65$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c159$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c148.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.429,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No63c141.26$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.961,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c136.19$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.352,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No60c114.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9116144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf954…dec8backed Yes37c109.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No74c109.81$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0636057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No69c108.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.459462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No77c105.29$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4631868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c102.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes42c102.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6844147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c89.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.734,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No63c78.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3121440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes32c77.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.195736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes32c73.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.631,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8677…9724backed Yes53c72.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.365540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed No72c69.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.527936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No79c65.11$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.598872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c64.62$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.593,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e61…eaeebacked No77c63.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.833354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No67c57.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8521068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes34c56.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.173831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea08…6191backed No65c56.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.652020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes61c55.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6414632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes24c55.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5225447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes28c55.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4113930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c54.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes56c51.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7913554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes27c50.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5618242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…abbbbacked No56c49.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c49.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.991,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649e…fd6abacked Yes43c49.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.312365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes27c49.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.568436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes35c49.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes41c48.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0332818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No48c46.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.741,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes31c45.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes59c44.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9646733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes50c43.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4629640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c40.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No77c39.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9271…19eabacked Yes55c38.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.913063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c37.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.341,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes32c35.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3825037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No66c34.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7511151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes37c33.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3911038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No57c33.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f02…e792backed No65c33.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes33c32.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1c…c965backed Yes34c32.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x917f…de46backed No56c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c29.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.022,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes40c28.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No68c28.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.344757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7621…ef40backed No61c28.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.36837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No52c25.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.168957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes50c23.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.836854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc0…ef70backed No67c21.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.263658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed No60c21.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.384148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No69c20.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3572952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1efd…2cbdbacked No61c19.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765d…8189backed No67c18.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082825%7 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b05…d7a7backed No61c17.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.883366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca2…835cbacked No71c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3868…e317backed No67c16.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.391154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed No78c15.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.392944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.