TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8171…66a5backed No1c1,257$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.994526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c467.14$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c429.22$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c343.3$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No61c310.39$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65a…8723backed Yes66c258.84$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.164586.7%39 W · 6 L+16.1wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+79.8%equal weight76+0.23 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes26c256.11$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.691,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No39c234.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3563323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c222.69$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.611,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes35c208.3$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9343238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c178.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.057,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No47c173.63$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.768,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c158.92$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.311,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed Yes29c158.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8614332.9%47 W · 96 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes35c143.84$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8877428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No70c141.44$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0414168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes34c127.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes41c123.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0929640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c122.87$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.532,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8677…9724backed Yes51c115.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.875540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes47c106.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…76afbacked No66c103.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.377844.9%35 W · 43 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b4c…a073backed Yes56c102.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No14c93.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.834319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64ec…0288backed Yes45c90.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa48a…fa82backed No66c87.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.72740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes32c86.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5912337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c85.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.133,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes27c81.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0120835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No74c80.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.895154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes51c80.01$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0737644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes30c78.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.865736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No69c72.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0130859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes30c71.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.448229.3%24 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No70c67.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes33c67.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2425037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c65.53$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.543,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed No62c64.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.737936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No73c63.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.735981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes51c63.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes49c62.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9816144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes44c60.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7616944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes49c59.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.343831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c55.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.11,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda14…1627backed Yes37c54.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c51.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes48c49.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.847129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c32…7f32backed No61c47.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes28c45.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No43c44.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1954…0166backed Yes43c44.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.171060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes66c43.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.884148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c41.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c38.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.364,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc2…093dbacked Yes28c38.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes38c38.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No48c36.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5216740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No73c35.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1711151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61ef…95fcbacked No68c35.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes39c34.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.111038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No71c34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.269164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fb…a1c0backed No58c32.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.171258.3%7 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick76cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f1c…c965backed Yes35c32.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.161450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes53c31.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9966141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes34c29.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4410865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c29.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dbb…c0abbacked No54c27.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.529551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes54c26.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.031435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ed…b814backed No66c25.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.432458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes45c23.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.772,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a0…0ae9backed No50c22.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4153…9f91backed Yes49c21.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765d…8189backed No66c21.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.912825%7 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No50c20.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No52c20.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.457153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes68c19.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1227463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4a…ced0backed No70c19.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick69cpaid-48.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes80c18.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.681,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c18.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.379,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed Yes60c17.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c16.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c15.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.221,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No72c14.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6418452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes79c13.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.8613554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.