Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe037fdc85148426729289342fcf3f812cee4d22b60fc1189e3f2bd524f7bba89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 1c | 1,257$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 467.14$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 429.22$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 343.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 61c | 310.39$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 66c | 258.84$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 256.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 39c | 234.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 222.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 208.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 178.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 173.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 158.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 29c | 158.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 143.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 70c | 141.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 127.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 123.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 122.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 51c | 115.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 106.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 66c | 103.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4c…a073backed Yes | 56c | 102.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 14c | 93.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…0288backed Yes | 45c | 90.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 66c | 87.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 32c | 86.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 85.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 27c | 81.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 74c | 80.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 51c | 80.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 30c | 78.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 72.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 30c | 71.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 67.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 33c | 67.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 65.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 62c | 64.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 73c | 63.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 63.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 49c | 62.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 44c | 60.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 49c | 59.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 55.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…1627backed Yes | 37c | 54.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 51.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 48c | 49.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…7f32backed No | 61c | 47.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 28c | 45.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 43c | 44.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed Yes | 43c | 44.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 66c | 43.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 41.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 38.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…093dbacked Yes | 28c | 38.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 38.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 48c | 36.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 73c | 35.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 68c | 35.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 34.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…a1c0backed No | 58c | 32.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 35c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 34c | 29.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 54c | 27.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 54c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 66c | 25.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 45c | 23.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed No | 50c | 22.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4153…9f91backed Yes | 49c | 21.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 66c | 21.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 52c | 20.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…ced0backed No | 70c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 16.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 72c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 79c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.