Champions League · resolved market
Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f64169bf4dc397b5113271d545627696aa8ac8393c79a473d4504451603967e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca5a…7e43backed Yes | 18c | 42,999$7,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,739.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 80c | 7,500$5,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.45 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 18c | 5,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 4,286$3,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.43 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 20c | 4,068$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.65 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2c26backed Yes | 17c | 3,400$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.34 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 17c | 1,370$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,049$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,002$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 17c | 765$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 21c | 474.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 66c | 471.44$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 65c | 364.7$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac14backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 18c | 278.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 256.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1d…0374backed Yes | 18c | 233$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 19c | 216.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 288 | 40.3%116 W · 172 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 25c | 177.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Yes | 32c | 159.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 70c | 154.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 66c | 153.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 35c | 144.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…6442backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 23c | 128.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +8.6wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes | 17c | 113.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…0de7backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 18c | 99.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…2446backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa520…e1a2backed Yes | 33c | 72.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…509dbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 17c | 66.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…aedebacked Yes | 18c | 63.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…f08dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…064ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…52e0backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?this page
- Will Páfos FC win on 2025-11-05?Yes won
- Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.