Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f6d810e3d77f8678e0c160147a5bca40d9fff5709577b3001adcf4b7d5ef9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 601.13$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 306.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 300.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 253.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 162.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…bfb6backed Yes | 74c | 139.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 125.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 64c | 110.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 101.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 23c | 100.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 66c | 89.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 50c | 79.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 51c | 79.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 39c | 77.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 61c | 77.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 74.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed Yes | 34c | 65.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 61.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 60.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 30c | 54.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 37c | 54.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 28c | 51.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 61c | 50.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 59c | 43.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 65c | 37.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 33.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 70c | 31.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked No | 64c | 30.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 59c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 66c | 27.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 55c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…bdb4backed Yes | 78c | 14.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.