Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f76a69fbef3100605b179bed57df4b25856c6111074971f20f463ae10877c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 65c | 226.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed Yes | 50c | 162.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 8c | 159.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 72c | 139.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 36c | 122.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 85.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 78.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 18c | 60.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 53.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176c…62f6backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 39.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 32.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…e1b5backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 72c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 20.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 69c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.