Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97aa533a3a2d92a387d2bf7e3f207435efe100542a4fa151335defbc7a1889dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 53c | 423.05$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.66 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 44c | 422.88$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.28 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 71c | 390.95$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 51c | 294.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 230$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 197.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 23c | 166.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 141.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 12c | 134.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 89.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 17c | 74.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 34c | 74.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 70.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 39c | 67.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 44c | 62.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 59.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 53.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 61c | 51.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 65c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 26c | 41.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 40c | 37.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 33.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 57c | 32.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 66c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 52c | 25.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 58c | 20.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 53c | 20.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.