TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,481 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants50c3,039$1,520 inLost-$1,519.712,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks49c2,937$1,442 inWon+$1,494.5812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants71c297.94$213 inLost-$212.848,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks33c178.8$60 inWon+$119.015,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xede5…5300backed Arizona Diamondbacks68c145.79$99 inWon+$46.456240.3%25 W · 37 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants22c63.47$14 inLost-$13.868,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants55c59$33 inLost-$32.692,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed San Francisco Giants52c55.67$29 inLost-$29.243043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants55c41.41$23 inLost-$22.925,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Arizona Diamondbacks50c39.42$20 inWon+$19.7119155.5%106 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants75c34.46$26 inLost-$25.854,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa2…2b5dbacked San Francisco Giants49c30.99$15 inLost-$15.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-81%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks75c29$22 inWon+$7.155,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa06…74c3backed San Francisco Giants77c25.64$20 inLost-$19.743759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Arizona Diamondbacks41c25$10 inWon+$14.8579255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.