MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74188115102a7e1b518d66d6ee83e214159c0edfe234a7fa812c2d10955c8d12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 12,082$5,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,560.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 8,605$4,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,075.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 7,517$4,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,506.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 4,470$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 3,511$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 51c | 2,126$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.91 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 53c | 1,517$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.17 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 53c | 1,016$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.18 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 66c | 1,000$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 403.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 366$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 20c | 189.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 64c | 184$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 152.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 54c | 150.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 47c | 144.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 51c | 135.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Under | 71c | 116$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 108.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 100.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 97.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 92.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 38c | 92.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 60c | 77.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 62c | 75.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 31c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 62c | 64.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 54c | 45.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 51c | 42.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 42c | 39.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 65c | 36.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 72c | 36.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Over | 33c | 32.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 57c | 31.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 50c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Over | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 67c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.