MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4771cf39af009ba4e87dd9228da1c65f8201d2035bd6837e629db6050615a15f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 2,337$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 1,887$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 1,758$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 943.69$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.6 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 918$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.84 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 859.99$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 717.16$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.45 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 716.14$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.97 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 446$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 336.67$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 303.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 301.7$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 284.18$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 278.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 263.47$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 245.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 221.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 220.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 209.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 192.1$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 190.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 165.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed San Francisco Giants | 22c | 138.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 100.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 91.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 74.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 53.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 47.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 47.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 35.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 30.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 251 | 55.4%139 W · 112 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 21.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.