MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2a91e61afb1dc3c3da583c9985e278f09a5d143355a4f8596c99ae7bfb8d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 10,147$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 9,808$6,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,508.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 2,005$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.93 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 1,492$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 972.41$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 608.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.82 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 438.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.34 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 281.19$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 201.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.82 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 198$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 189.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 156.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 133.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 128.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 99.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 98.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 86.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 79.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 68.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…0d2bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 59.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 56.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 50.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 42.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 35.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…7d38backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 33.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 32.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 28.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 25.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 22.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 21.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.