NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fae89a6474e705c23bfa97a1fe28ba5eee2efd5560f4072421118c4775cab48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 50c | 23,320$11,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,660 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Grizzlies | 50c | 6,798$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Mavericks | 51c | 5,206$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.22 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 3,553$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Grizzlies | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Grizzlies | 49c | 3,349$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.86 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Grizzlies | 51c | 3,000$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.95 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Grizzlies | 49c | 2,200$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Mavericks | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,544$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.72 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,477$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 50c | 591.07$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.54 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 50c | 591$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Mavericks | 53c | 330.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Mavericks | 51c | 327$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.77 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Mavericks | 50c | 323$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.79 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 115.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Mavericks | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 87.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…a43fbacked Mavericks | 53c | 81.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Grizzlies | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Grizzlies | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Mavericks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 50c | 52.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Mavericks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Mavericks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Mavericks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Mavericks | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Mavericks | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Grizzlies | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Mavericks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…7e00backed Mavericks | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Mavericks | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…5384backed Mavericks | 51c | 21.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…30acbacked Mavericks | 53c | 20.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…40d6backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.