Fifa International · resolved market
Will France beat Spain?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fb0aae8229f8beaf799dad420757eba5e8c291985843db08d966f96faf6ad69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Yes | 30c | 9,818$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 67c | 4,667$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.14 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 4,213$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.51 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…28a6backed Yes | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 39c | 989.74$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa7…ebc5backed Yes | 22c | 835$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…2865backed Yes | 33c | 600.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…207ebacked Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 35c | 416.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed Yes | 32c | 398$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9e…87c9backed Yes | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 65c | 322.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 68c | 256.77$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 66c | 199.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 30c | 198.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…5172backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 67c | 181.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 68c | 179$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…6255backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 70c | 141.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed Yes | 31c | 139.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 16c | 125.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…e3b2backed Yes | 27c | 112.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…3176backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 32c | 94.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…4d50backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e0c4backed Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…6bb2backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…1a23backed Yes | 33c | 60.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3438…26fabacked No | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 66c | 54.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 70c | 54.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed No | 70c | 43.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…f98fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France beat Spain?this page
- Will Spain beat France?Yes won
- Will Spain vs. France end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.