Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc16552ec14e8306817bd6b4edaf032f5142e3d9c2bba4d87c879364396e4c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 1c | 14,017$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 2,078$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.58 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 699.1$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 32c | 591$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…6872backed Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 443.25$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 73c | 415.72$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 410$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 63c | 315.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 15c | 159.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 33c | 128.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 20c | 89.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 85.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 27c | 44.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 76c | 43.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…0979backed Yes | 24c | 41.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 39c | 39.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 35.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 77c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed No | 79c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 77c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 69c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ilves Tampere vs. FC Déifferdeng 03 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Déifferdeng 03 win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.