Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fdad82b21a00d95327a5503f67389007d71550dd508bf01df57516a28926c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 3c | 956.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 576.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 352.37$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 33c | 283.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 270.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 190.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 184.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 168.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 41c | 122.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 48c | 111.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 36c | 107.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 64.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 60.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 44c | 49.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 65c | 44.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 40.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 40.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 36.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 34.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 50c | 30.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 47c | 30.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 43c | 27.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 53c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 51c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…bd22backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.