Olympics · resolved market
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-4.5) vs. USA (+4.5) gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe778fcb276028d1e5219a8b3148832286d7026d89bdc5d400fd7f882b66baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norwayof USA, Norway
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed USA | 8c | 7,159$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.61 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed USA | 2c | 6,631$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed USA | 5c | 3,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…665fbacked USA | 8c | 2,541$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed USA | 5c | 1,877$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed USA | 5c | 1,320$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked USA | 11c | 794.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed USA | 4c | 661.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed USA | 3c | 500.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Norway | 70c | 437.87$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +179.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1a…2b23backed USA | 11c | 405.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…9fecbacked USA | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed USA | 6c | 379.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed USA | 9c | 357.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…178fbacked USA | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked USA | 4c | 331.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…756cbacked USA | 11c | 298.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…86f3backed USA | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked USA | 8c | 208.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…68e8backed USA | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed USA | 14c | 167$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…dc5cbacked USA | 28c | 141.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed USA | 10c | 113.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked USA | 31c | 101.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…f36fbacked Norway | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38e…dce8backed USA | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…088dbacked USA | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…5897backed USA | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked USA | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed USA | 30c | 77.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked USA | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed USA | 30c | 40.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed USA | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Norway | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.