Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe8793a4f0ddad4c02e8f5620b0e73796ca83157c048b2b30aea1eded09f1e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 899.7$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.3 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 56c | 545.04$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.82 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 44c | 454.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 323.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 44c | 244.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 15c | 221$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 64c | 156.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 136.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 79c | 128.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 56c | 121.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 101.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 99.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 41c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 69.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 40c | 53.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 37c | 31.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Charlotte FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Charlotte FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.