Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe9f8216d521f3beb28548838624ec95bc8a7c10fc0a0664c35cb362211b76d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 9,866$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 0c | 8,976$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 4c | 772.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 15c | 587.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 475.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 466.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 14c | 458.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 11c | 439.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 414.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 11c | 355.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 331.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 8c | 321.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 313.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 12c | 308.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 8c | 305.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 9c | 286.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 6c | 271.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 254.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…35d8backed Yes | 9c | 244.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…fc86backed Yes | 6c | 211.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…c4cebacked Yes | 6c | 209.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 14c | 202.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 18c | 189.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 186.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 179.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 14c | 171.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed Yes | 15c | 158.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 19c | 157$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 153.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…8f7bbacked Yes | 10c | 148.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 12c | 146.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 138.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 131.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 22c | 124.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 21c | 122.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 10c | 121.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 17c | 121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 114.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 18c | 86.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed Yes | 23c | 85.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 15c | 85.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 18c | 80.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 18c | 73.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…3518backed Yes | 22c | 69.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 64.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…77aabacked Yes | 25c | 59.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 18c | 54.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 46.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 77c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 75c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…fd36backed No | 77c | 13.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…801bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.