TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,213
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,213 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8785…5d00backed Yes0c6,555$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes3c2,856$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3813423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes3c2,756$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2729520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c2,557$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.663,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes6c1,524$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8411227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c470.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No69c397.82$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.316335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x230e…d97cbacked Yes4c356.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No70c343.45$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.984,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes20c300$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.41,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes26c243.92$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.452733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes25c229.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.597237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes29c196.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.144533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961b…8183backed Yes15c194.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes30c184.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes23c160$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.861,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1535…35d8backed Yes26c158.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes18c157.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes34c157.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.549017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No71c153$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c152.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No68c147.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c145$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.653,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed No70c143.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.034463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a1…b0fbbacked Yes25c134.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No66c134.4$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.324736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c132.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes18c130$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No76c129.88$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes30c128.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9512625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes28c127.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2916530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes36c127.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.665,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes31c123.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9218837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c123.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes22c122.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7520025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes26c121.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1418038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes27c121.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.631,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3c…a384backed Yes26c113.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes34c107.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4861629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes23c102.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.498228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes25c100.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes22c100.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1723633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes30c99.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No75c96.04$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.866070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes20c95.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.365334%18 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes27c92.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes26c88.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.984540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes20c85.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3113134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945d…77aabacked Yes29c80.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…bc0ebacked Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ec…d09cbacked No74c79.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.741560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes40c78.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3114161%86 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f6…85e9backed No70c78.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.158067.5%54 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes31c77.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245729.8%17 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No75c77.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes27c73.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes23c71.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1711438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No75c71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.653,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes35c70.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes29c69.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4634633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No74c67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.692965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No73c64.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2439158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes16c61.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf13b…33d0backed Yes30c53.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc484…c9d1backed Yes23c51.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.111330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes30c50.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes34c49.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8430813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes32c48.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.625925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes28c45.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed No67c45.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.95332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No67c44.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.566479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c43.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No78c42.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2242160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No79c41.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.832,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.484447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No78c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4650373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes31c35.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.153839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c35.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b18…bd24backed No70c33.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.086564.6%42 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes37c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c32.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No67c32.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No67c31.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No66c30.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.431,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x314b…4681backed No80c28.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c27.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.094,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf1…7f9abacked No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c23.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed No66c22.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ef…c83ebacked No67c21.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7a…73c0backed No70c21.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.472763%17 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No73c20.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5317071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8864…7948backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No80c19.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No76c19.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7739157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No79c19.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.