TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae2e…40adbacked No3c2,332$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1329520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked No3c2,278$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5713423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No20c1,464$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.314,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed Yes51c1,079$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.694037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No3c827.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No18c742.87$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4258422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90b8…8665backed No2c718.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c398.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes38c359.28$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.548228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.97$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.772,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.81,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No32c290$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.615,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5a…bc49backed No4c285$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes35c249.17$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.422733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No41c243.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.482,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No14c238.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5113134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4966…2402backed Yes59c236.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c236.04$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No21c235.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.341,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes48c230$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.187237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No44c198.89$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0835058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…a5cabacked No71c195.69$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No69c182.84$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12612329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes24c169$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No41c163.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No68c156.09$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.548257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No10c155.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.635854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d97…05c3backed Yes67c148.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.441776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No11c148.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7239159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes32c139.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0321236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes35c138.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.076439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes33c138.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.056233.9%21 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c137.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.292,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No23c130$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.734,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c129.03$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c123.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.151,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c119.29$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.828,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes43c117.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9716046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked No69c116.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.333961.5%24 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes45c112.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.065633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes35c109.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.171,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes65c109.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.461442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes43c100.28$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.282733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes30c100.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.177728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes32c97.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c95.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes33c94.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0118837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c92.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.663,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes30c86.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6617831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes42c85.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.614161%86 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes37c85.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9130442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes72c82.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8213959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No28c82.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No33c79.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c77.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No65c77.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes39c76.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8811637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfde1…914bbacked Yes35c74.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.52744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No69c73.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9126067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4319551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed No63c71.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0823633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b33…999ebacked Yes42c70.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes74c67.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2614645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No59c66.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes65c64.48$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No65c61.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c57.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.285,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No70c56.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.732965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c52.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.273,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb563…26bfbacked Yes80c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.521758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes44c51.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7711249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3878…2e5ebacked No49c50.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.663754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes31c50.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No69c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.417364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.511038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.062853.6%15 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+44.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No66c49.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes24c46.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3316724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes36c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9940741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes29c44.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8311546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes36c44.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No66c43.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f54…682fbacked Yes35c43.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.372040%8 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No44c41.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.992,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No69c40.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e93…be55backed Yes31c40.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.971,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8785…5d00backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No34c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No63c37.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes53c36.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.