Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e03ee6e613171fe7a5e4ff70a78ccedf1df0b26e1d0aaf75820424964ecdce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 3,561$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…cca9backed Yes | 0c | 3,244$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 4c | 1,149$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 305.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 24c | 245.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 12c | 238.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 10c | 220$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked No | 80c | 217.62$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 208.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 202.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 202.25$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 183.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 18c | 158.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 145.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 143.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 22c | 133.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 77c | 129$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 21c | 124.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 25c | 123.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 114.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 78c | 109.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 10c | 107.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 104.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 103.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…3fb3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…7f60backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 95.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 22c | 92.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 86.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1002backed No | 79c | 86.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 85.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 70c | 83.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 17c | 81.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 26c | 76.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…c2a5backed No | 73c | 75.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 15c | 74.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…999ebacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 69.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b32…a197backed Yes | 24c | 62.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 60.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed No | 70c | 60.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 51.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 42.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 27c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…682fbacked Yes | 24c | 41.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 40.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked No | 78c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 74c | 32.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 75c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 77c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.