MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0087af4d8a570d8b15021a07e2e415bf2ac40c516f89c95aee1ca69e6069829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Blue Jays, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Blue Jays | 50c | 128,657$64,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,889.69 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Yankees | 59c | 77,824$45,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,214.94 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yankees | 35c | 44,065$15,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,468.04 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yankees | 63c | 10,694$6,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956.94 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Blue Jays | 45c | 7,963$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.94 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yankees | 61c | 4,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.99 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…58f0backed Blue Jays | 39c | 3,535$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yankees | 62c | 2,400$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Yankees | 65c | 2,391$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.27 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Blue Jays | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Yankees | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Yankees | 60c | 900$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Blue Jays | 41c | 830.7$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yankees | 61c | 799.99$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Blue Jays | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yankees | 62c | 651.96$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.75 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Blue Jays | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yankees | 64c | 571.28$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.66 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Yankees | 62c | 565.63$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yankees | 58c | 549.53$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.12 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Yankees | 60c | 547.45$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.32 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yankees | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…3d89backed Blue Jays | 38c | 375.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yankees | 32c | 329.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.87 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Yankees | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yankees | 64c | 155.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Yankees | 24c | 99.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yankees | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yankees | 25c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Blue Jays | 29c | 41.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Yankees | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Yankees | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yankees | 64c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Yankees | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.