NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0124176f0540b06d2e44683fa2542bca01192dff65433c75b9d59a7160f3609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Sabres, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Sabres | 32c | 5,239$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 32c | 3,618$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.54 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Flyers | 68c | 3,567$2,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.45 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Flyers | 68c | 2,941$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.12 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 67c | 2,050$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Sabres | 30c | 393$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Flyers | 67c | 173$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Flyers | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sabres | 14c | 126.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Flyers | 68c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sabres | 32c | 105.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…d8b3backed Sabres | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Flyers | 70c | 67.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Sabres | 30c | 67.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Flyers | 68c | 54.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Flyers | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Flyers | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sabres | 30c | 40.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Flyers | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Flyers | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Flyers | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Flyers | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Flyers | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Flyers | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers | 68c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Sabres vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.