NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74371a8f7199cf21281397df627c8c27a8041e2ba444a1cfb70dcdfb8c66f95f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 47c | 49,166$23,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,871.76 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 17,356$8,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,970.26 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Under | 53c | 16,000$8,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,480 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 49c | 14,284$6,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,284.67 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,834$3,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.1 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 4,120$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.4 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 4,094$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.78 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 51c | 3,921$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.71 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.49 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 2,261$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.32 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 52c | 1,760$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.2 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 53c | 1,055$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.15 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Over | 48c | 916.67$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.67 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 55c | 685.45$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Under | 53c | 530$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.9 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 53c | 516.9$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.76 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 507.36$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.42 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 487$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 443.97$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.42 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 403.16$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.72 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 47c | 391.49$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked Over | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 48c | 270.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 51c | 156$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 52c | 149.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…6bb9backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 71.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…8bdfbacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd4…8f7abacked Over | 47c | 57.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cd…640cbacked Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 48c | 48.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 52c | 44.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 47c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…b12bbacked Under | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…6f62backed Under | 54c | 37.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…d6f8backed Over | 47c | 37.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Over | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…4f40backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…af0bbacked Over | 48c | 30.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 48c | 28.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Sabres vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.