Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0422982609f4ed75964529c028ba713db615b607e5aef887eb7be83cce29028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Queens (NC) Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Queens (NC) Royals | 53c | 1,869$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.29 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 1,009$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.09 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Queens (NC) Royals | 54c | 827.71$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.89 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 53c | 479.55$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.39 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 336.92$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.92 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Queens (NC) Royals | 47c | 222.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 203.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Central Arkansas Bears | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Queens (NC) Royals | 47c | 148.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 99.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 97.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Central Arkansas Bears | 45c | 88.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…30d3backed Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 49.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Queens (NC) Royals | 47c | 49.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Central Arkansas Bears | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Central Arkansas Bears | 53c | 39.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 30.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Central Arkansas Bears | 53c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Central Arkansas Bears | 46c | 25.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 48c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Central Arkansas Bears (-2.5)this page
- Queens (NC) Royals vs. Central Arkansas BearsCentral Arkansas Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.