TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Queens (NC) Royals vs. Central Arkansas Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Central Arkansas Bearsof Queens (NC) Royals, Central Arkansas Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd37a…2358backed Queens (NC) Royals42c6,327$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.51,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Central Arkansas Bears58c6,161$3,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.6423754.4%129 W · 108 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Queens (NC) Royals13c3,616$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.8270936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Queens (NC) Royals25c2,753$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.155,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Queens (NC) Royals43c1,738$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.7544549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Central Arkansas Bears58c1,568$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.041,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Central Arkansas Bears77c1,442$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.281,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Queens (NC) Royals24c1,419$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3734943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Queens (NC) Royals13c1,384$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.033,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Central Arkansas Bears70c1,022$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.473,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Queens (NC) Royals32c750.33$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.934,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Central Arkansas Bears69c544.36$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.472,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Central Arkansas Bears75c496.71$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.794,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Central Arkansas Bears57c423.43$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.431,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Central Arkansas Bears57c348.92$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6416248.1%78 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Central Arkansas Bears57c347.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6478052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Queens (NC) Royals43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Queens (NC) Royals22c179.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.312,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Central Arkansas Bears79c175.12$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Queens (NC) Royals17c126.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0677142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Queens (NC) Royals20c116.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0135852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Queens (NC) Royals43c107.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0481528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Central Arkansas Bears79c100.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1430853.2%164 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Queens (NC) Royals43c99.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.631,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Central Arkansas Bears57c87.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.724,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Queens (NC) Royals43c69.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7493447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Queens (NC) Royals22c64.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Queens (NC) Royals44c60.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4316546.7%77 W · 88 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Queens (NC) Royals43c57.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.958652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Queens (NC) Royals35c53.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6915551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked Central Arkansas Bears79c50.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5710244.1%45 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Queens (NC) Royals43c46.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8316746.1%77 W · 90 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d2…b28fbacked Central Arkansas Bears58c35.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x140f…0b2ebacked Central Arkansas Bears58c34.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.363855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Queens (NC) Royals44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0543053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Central Arkansas Bears56c20.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.816755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Central Arkansas Bears67c15.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9964658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.