NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c14637e07dd12f10b0401decb0b506f7b76f09702deaaf1faf71eb26b3f382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bulls, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Wizards | 46c | 748$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.92 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Bulls | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 45c | 527.8$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Bulls | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 56c | 353$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 46c | 348$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…35a4backed Wizards | 46c | 221$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Wizards | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…7a65backed Bulls | 55c | 187$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3294…beccbacked Wizards | 46c | 153$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…de17backed Bulls | 55c | 149$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8148…5f30backed Bulls | 55c | 137$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -76%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Bulls | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Bulls | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Bulls | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Wizards | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 44c | 97.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Bulls | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Bulls | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…60a4backed Wizards | 47c | 69.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Bulls | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…7975backed Bulls | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wizards | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Bulls (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BullsBulls won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.