NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6476e6f5a4d6255fff82205e7dca681c39df680e35087de71c7988886d95d33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e27…3cccbacked Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…abbdbacked Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…2b11backed Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 878.54$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 580.39$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 496.83$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.95 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Under | 53c | 387$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 386$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 52c | 386$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 385.66$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.69 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 382.13$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 208.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Over | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 203$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…6bffbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Under | 52c | 194.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 58c | 187.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Under | 47c | 147$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…0decbacked Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 54c | 101.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…447ebacked Under | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 48c | 58.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…55d3backed Over | 51c | 33.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 50c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5this page
- Spread: Bulls (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BullsBulls won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.