NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fb1d4a844f25374bf787feca00c9ede8dbe5e428beaab66d60db67bcd12e4bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 49c | 7,872$3,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,995.24 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 760.8$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 505.39$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 443.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 54c | 363.59$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 21c | 297.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.08 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Over | 78c | 221.31$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 133 | 18.8%25 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 215$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…37b4backed Over | 51c | 192.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 186.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 25c | 142.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 52c | 95.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 49c | 93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Under | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…61ddbacked Under | 32c | 62.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…af20backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5this page
- Spread: Bulls (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BullsBulls won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.