NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd056a7bb17514aba1c9d7243842978e0fb034e30a6cdb398b3d569eb50f6b0e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bulls, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Bulls | 51c | 124,738$63,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,759.93 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards | 50c | 64,179$32,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,792.31 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 49c | 30,139$14,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,370.77 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 47c | 20,021$9,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,511.29 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Bulls | 49c | 18,022$8,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,830.78 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 49c | 17,065$8,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,749.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 50c | 8,000$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,003.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9028backed Wizards | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Wizards | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Bulls | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bulls | 50c | 3,235$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.09 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 49c | 2,728$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.64 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bulls | 49c | 2,391$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.88 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…f556backed Bulls | 50c | 2,160$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Bulls | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Wizards | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Bulls | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wizards | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.16 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls | 50c | 1,370$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.38 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 49c | 1,171$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.1 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 52c | 1,165$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Bulls | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Wizards | 57c | 875.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.28 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…c720backed Bulls | 50c | 690$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…09f1backed Wizards | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Bulls | 51c | 588.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Bulls | 51c | 402$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Bulls | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 50c | 392$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Wizards | 48c | 384$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Wizards | 52c | 337.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…05d8backed Bulls | 49c | 294.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Wizards | 52c | 267.31$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 49c | 265.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 47c | 216.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bulls | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…7c99backed Wizards | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Bulls | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Wizards | 51c | 125.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bulls | 12c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Wizards | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Bulls | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Wizards | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Bulls | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bulls | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bulls | 50c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Wizards | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Bulls | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Wizards | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bulls | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Wizards | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bulls | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 50c | 42.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Bulls | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Wizards | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620e…e4d3backed Bulls | 51c | 36.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bulls | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bulls | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Bulls | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Bulls | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bulls | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…e2ffbacked Bulls | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Bulls | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Bulls | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Bulls | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Wizards | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Bulls | 49c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Wizards | 50c | 20.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Bulls (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. BullsBulls won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.