Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ca56ae264afc45f4457546376ec07a4a2430eccbb53b9b1b3dab9bd1e23e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $371,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $353,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 3c | 166,735$4,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,391.64 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 3c | 25,199$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,274$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,983$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 4c | 6,482$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,026$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 4,807$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,405$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 2c | 4,169$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes | 6c | 3,100$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…72ffbacked Yes | 3c | 2,990$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 10c | 2,968$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,579$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…00d7backed Yes | 7c | 2,496$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…785fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,920$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,908$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…7082backed Yes | 4c | 1,821$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 5c | 1,660$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…8f8fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,657$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,433$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…7e70backed Yes | 4c | 1,403$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c42…d89abacked Yes | 1c | 1,205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…6fb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…212fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,126$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5e86backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…e380backed Yes | 3c | 938.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa015…80bbbacked Yes | 5c | 886.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 878.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…3ee9backed Yes | 2c | 858.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 6c | 807.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7e…f560backed Yes | 2c | 803.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…5210backed Yes | 5c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…5565backed Yes | 2c | 747.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 736.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…21b0backed Yes | 7c | 731.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 8c | 707.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 14c | 706.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 3c | 579.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ec7dbacked Yes | 4c | 572.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…16d1backed Yes | 4c | 465$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107d…ba22backed Yes | 7c | 392.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…f8aabacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes | 7c | 347.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a3…c495backed Yes | 5c | 313.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 313.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50b…0a00backed Yes | 6c | 310.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 4c | 294.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 7c | 279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…5423backed Yes | 7c | 246.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes | 4c | 222.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 12c | 138.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the September meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.