Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ad53ad147aa53fbeffc3462117436e6b65858008b07f33574adbdb460c6bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $448,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked No | 2c | 44,591$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.98 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 4,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked No | 1c | 4,253$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 4,147$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,576$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked No | 1c | 1,950$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 7c | 1,823$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 5c | 1,591$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,355$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 1,095$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 914.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 4c | 901.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 825.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked No | 3c | 754.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 4c | 639.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed No | 5c | 519.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…a6e9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…6d0dbacked No | 5c | 331.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed No | 5c | 277.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 7c | 179.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 8c | 169.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…9a89backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the September meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.