Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e3abfe90ee6664e9d3bff58d804b59be167d5554c1ce09b92bf99fcb4d195d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63f3…dfa2backed Yes | 69c | 88,211$60,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,865.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked No | 31c | 88,211$27,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,865.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…43ecbacked No | 22c | 1,868$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…3dcebacked Yes | 78c | 1,868$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…0121backed No | 20c | 1,864$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…3a1cbacked Yes | 80c | 1,864$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…130dbacked No | 19c | 1,042$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 47c | 344.9$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 59c | 303.77$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…f451backed Yes | 52c | 277.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 45c | 273.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 58c | 186$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 59c | 156.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…c9a0backed Yes | 15c | 146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 51c | 132.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Yes | 79c | 125.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 45c | 124.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 22c | 120.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 42c | 107.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 106.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db2…5962backed Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 66c | 75.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…d6adbacked Yes | 64c | 73.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed No | 34c | 73.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…64f8backed No | 18c | 58.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9173…eb51backed No | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 65c | 53.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 44c | 52.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…34e1backed Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…7c0fbacked Yes | 66c | 44.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…2c95backed No | 43c | 42.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…68e7backed Yes | 51c | 42.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…24a7backed No | 42c | 40.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef64…863bbacked No | 59c | 40.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…6906backed Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…b9b2backed No | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…388fbacked Yes | 46c | 37.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…a406backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 63c | 36.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…8814backed No | 50c | 36.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…3075backed No | 54c | 36.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…81cabacked Yes | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…954dbacked No | 53c | 34.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…6100backed No | 56c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…d230backed Yes | 48c | 34.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…b66dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…e26ebacked Yes | 55c | 33.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…7f71backed No | 49c | 33.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…b46bbacked No | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…1edebacked No | 52c | 31.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…b25fbacked No | 56c | 30.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ab…d109backed No | 34c | 30.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…a886backed Yes | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4972…3525backed Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…1357backed Yes | 51c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…ae84backed No | 52c | 29.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…4fdfbacked Yes | 59c | 28.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…ab59backed No | 43c | 28.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…4f13backed Yes | 55c | 27.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…a1cbbacked No | 56c | 24.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…fa1bbacked Yes | 55c | 23.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…ca6abacked Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.