Us Politics · resolved market
Will Gaetz be sworn in with the new congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e8ea405f6601bc5977d37d7a21b30a463b1379dec11e5b5ca4d7f17d462abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 1c | 1,962$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,514$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 79c | 1,444$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.42 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 900.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 33c | 809.17$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 28c | 599.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 23c | 574.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 69c | 375.03$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 58c | 189.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked No | 70c | 185.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1b0cbacked Yes | 38c | 180$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 79c | 155$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…d41dbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707c…21bbbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…f18cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 38c | 73.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…4b36backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 66c | 39.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…d8fbbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…5351backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.