Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0f77ace9e60a113159ed698075e493d4c7620dd5ade28d455b208b1dbc4e158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 64c | 6,050$3,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.34 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 2c | 4,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 54c | 3,146$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.61 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 1,425$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 51c | 1,096$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.22 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 39c | 1,060$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.06 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 69c | 936.1$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.49 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 880.16$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 78c | 874.89$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.76 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 67c | 715.42$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 35c | 599.98$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 64c | 404.57$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a08backed Yes | 52c | 389.1$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed No | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 73c | 250.23$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…60a0backed No | 64c | 228.89$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 5c | 211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 205$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 75c | 180.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 179.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…c98abacked No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 50c | 141$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 27c | 125$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 70c | 120.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 37c | 111$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 47c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 54c | 92.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 38c | 89.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 83.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 47c | 72.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked No | 38c | 69.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 55c | 68.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 51c | 67.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…9981backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 65c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 54.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 77c | 53.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…6a45backed Yes | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 56c | 35.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ba69backed Yes | 76c | 35.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…9bd7backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 57c | 25.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fd…0158backed Yes | 72c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 51c | 24.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…fc3cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 74c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or below on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or higher on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.